A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]
On Nate Silver’s Predictions: Which Side Of The Probability Equation Are We On?
When I checked FiveThirtyEight.com’s Senate prediction, it said “Republicans have a 72.3% chance of winning a majority.” There were also words that the “probability that each party will win control of the […]
Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability
Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory. I’ll give […]
Do You Believe In Global Warming Because Of The Seriousness Of The Charges?
An activist tells you, “Based on my theory of rampant, out-of-control global warming, otters, driven mad by the heat, will take to the streets and destroy mankind, just like apes do in […]
Explanation Vs Prediction
Introduction There isn’t as much space between explanation and prediction as you’d think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here’s how it all works. I’ll illustrate […]
What Regression Really Is: Part II
Read Part I Let’s continue our example. Suppose our regression shows that the probability of a Hate score greater than 5 is 60% for men and 80% for women—for people we have […]
Obamacare Predictions: How’d We Do So Far?
One of life’s real pleasures, though it lessens us to admit it, is when we get to say I told you so. Nobody in the world, except those who believe in magic, […]
How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That
Unleash the polls! No, I don’t mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens which nowadays […]
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