I once had a guy walk out on me at a scientific conference, full of my peers. He and I were disagreeing about the nature of probability. The exact words have escaped […]
Probability is Logic
I was reading a draft of a book our own Fr John Rickert’s is working on. Visual Logic: Seeing Classical and Modern Logic: An Introduction, a neat little handbook showing how to […]
The Frequency Interpretation Of Probability Is False: Some Reasons Contra von Mises
What is the chance that “Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election”? Impossible to say, says Richard von Mises, because the event is singular and must be embedded in an infinite collection […]
There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability
Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn’t. Bayes is a helpful […]
On The Logical Probability Of The Truth Of Mathematical Theorems
I was reading through some of James Franklin’s papers on logical probability in an effort to not embarrass myself when I make my speech at the Broken Science Initiative event next weekend. […]
How “The Science” Is Created By Not Understanding Belief & Decision Are Not Uncertainty & Probability
Stick with me on this not-so-easy subject, because I’m going to reveal a trick used to make you “Follow the Science!” Belief is an act. Uncertainty is a state. Decision is a […]
Reader Question: Probability is not real in the sense that real life things are real
Anon writes: Mr. Briggs, I am trying to understand the statement in the title. It [probability] is a measure of uncertainty. It is a measure of what we know or do not […]
Why Attempts To Control Opinion Cause Opinion To Diverge
From Mars, John Carter reports in a wonderful essay discussing the Regime’s attempts at manipulation says this: People don’t like being gaslit. The psychological techniques used by salesmen, con men, and pickup […]
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