Look at the picture, which is real data, but disguised to obscure its source. It is a physical measurement taken monthly by a recognized authority. The measurements are thought to have little […]
Using P-Values To Diagnose “Trends” Is Invalid
Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!
The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It isn’t sticking, […]
Example Of Bad Trend Analysis
These examples are from the BAMS article “Continental US Hurricane Landfall Frequency And Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks” by PhiliP J. Klotzbach, Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke JR., and Michael Bell. […]
Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question
From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, “The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is the number […]
When Testing Parameters Might Make Sense
This example is derived from ongoing conversations with a colleague, and portions of this post (mathematified) might show up in a paper. The genesis of this example is from Ron Christensen’s 2005 […]
Example Of How To Eliminate P-values & Their Replacement
Many, many more details are available in Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics and at this page. Last time we learned that the way to do probability models was this: […]
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part V New (Free) Software Multinomial Regression
Previous post in the series (or click above on Class). REVIEW! Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. If you downloaded before, download again. This is version 0.22! Only the example code changed since […]
How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part X: Survival Analysis
Query: now that I’m a video master, would people like videos of these lessons? I don’t see how they’d help much, but who knows. Let me know below or via email. Next […]
Recent Comments