This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate his entry […]
I Never Received About 15% Of Your Emails
I first describe a bug at the blog, a blog bug, and then show us a few emails we missed. WordPress Bug & Emails I was cleaning up the blog on a […]
Canada’s Science Coronadoom Model Discovers Canada’s Science Saved 800 Thousand Lives
Repeat after me: all models only say what they are told to say. Here it is, right from the hole of Theresa Tam (you recall it was that Canadian official’s bright idea […]
Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question
From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, “The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is the number […]
Solution To The Kind-Hearted Magician — REVEALED!
Kip Hansen last week gave us the following scenario (which I’ve pared to bare essentials here, but check the original if you fret): START Sam shows us three cards, two Jokers and […]
Statistics (Philosophy) Quiz: See If You Really Know What You’re Doing Using Tests
This is from Gerd Gigerenzer’s “Mindless statistics” in The Journal of Socio-Economics, 33, (2004) 587–606. Have a go before looking at the answers (I’m giving my own, not quoting Gigerenzer). Send this […]
How To Generate Scientific Over-Certainty
It’s easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I’ll show you how. I’ll give you the procedure first, then work through an example […]
How Predictive Statistics Can Help Alleviate, But Not Eliminate, The Reproducibility Crisis
Predictive statistics can help alleviate the Reproducibility Crisis by, in a word, eliminating p-values. And replacing them with superior measures more useful in quantifing the uncertainty present. Below is some, what I […]
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