A pair of statisticians have calculated that, as of 10 June, the probability that Germany takes the 2012 Euro Cup is 26.8%. Russia, they say, comes in with the next highest probability […]
Teaching Journal: Day 7
The joke is old and hoary and so well known that I risk the reader’s ire for repeating it. But it contains a damning truth. Most academic statistical studies are like a […]
Teaching Journal: Day 6
(I’m assuming you have been reading previous posts. If not, do so.) We still want this: (1) Pr (Distance > 1 meter | normal with m and s specified) = something […]
True Value Of A Parameter
Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit with it. […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V
We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy’s GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model and our […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I
The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what is a […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II
The models in Part I might not have “felt right” to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted. This is […]
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III
We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical for both, […]
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