# Search results for ‘probability’

## Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part II: Skin in the Game

Read Part I It is in one sense fortunate that the mathematical, or rather quantitative, roots of probability began with gambling. Routine gambles are easy to understand, and the calculations not only […]

## Making Random Draws Is Nuts

Let’s do a little science experiment together. Go into the closet and pull out an opaque sack or bag. Anything will do, even a large sock. If you can fit your hand […]

## How To Do Predictive Statistics: Part VIII — Starting Stan

Review! You must at least review the first lessons—all class material is on one page for ease. I’ll have more words about the mysticism of simulation, but I’ve said it all before […]

## A Beats B Beats C Beats A

Thanks to Bruce Foutch who found the video above. Transitivity is familiar with ordinary numbers. If B > A and C > B and D > C, then D > A. But […]

## Lovely Example of Statistics Gone Bad

The graph above (biggified version here) was touted by Simon Kuestenmacher (who posts many beautiful maps). He said “This plot shows the objects that were found to be ‘the most distant object’ […]

## Choose Predictive Over Parametric Every Time

Gaze and wonder at picture which heads this article, which I lifted from John Haman’s nifty R package ciTools. The numbers in the plot are made up whole cloth to demonstrate the […]

## The Gremlins Of MCMC: Or, Computer Simulations Are Not What You Think

I don’t think we’re clear on what simulation is NOT. RANDOMNESS IS NOT NECESSARY, for the simple reason randomness is merely a state of knowledge. Hence this classic post from 12 June […]