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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

All Of Statistics: Part III

(B) New data It might surprise you, but in classical (both frequentist and Bayesian) practice, if we expect to see new X, the procedure is almost always no different than…
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Posted inPhilosophy

The Economic Fallacy, Greenpeace, David Suzuki, And Global Warming

"You can't believe what that guy says. He research was funded by Greenpeace!" The person uttering this sentence has committed the economic fallacy, which is the belief that the truth…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Journal Editor Still Inserting Politics Into Science: Trevors and Saier Strike Back

The story thus far: Jack Trevors, bigwig at the learned journal Water Air Soil Pollution, and occasionally along with his pal Milton Saier, has been in the habit of abusing…
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Posted inStatistics

Of Course Human Caused Climate Change Is Real

"In a survey last year by the National Academy of Sciences, 97 percent to 98 percent of climate researchers agreed with the premise that humans are causing climate change." So…
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Posted inStatistics

Richard Muller Gives Permission To Be Climate Skeptic, Shows Why

Update See my review of the BEST methodology here. Physicist Richard Muller has a piece in today's Wall Street Journal that should be read by everyone (The Case Against Global-Warming…
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Posted inStatistics

D.J. Keenan’s And My BEST Methodology Reviews

Doug Keenan was asked by The Economist to have a gander at the statistics developed by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project. He did so. We must resist extensive…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Something To Be Thankful For: Climategate 2.0

Thanks to Mr, or Mrs, Anonymous, that generous individual who has graced us with a new batch of emails from the world's top climate scientists. These new missives are guaranteed…
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Posted inStatistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…
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  1. NLR on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    The thing that gets me about these rationalists is that they seem to think it's still 1998. All the Internet…

  2. Rudolph Harrier on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    It was discussion of voting models that made it easy for me to believe your assertion that there are no…

  3. Paul Murphy on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    and the #1 reason to dislike prediction markets is... they can be used like push polls to manipulate opinion -…

  4. Plantagenet on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    Addendum I forgot to mention that since I placed my bet a couple months ago the odds are now on…

  5. Plantagenet on Reasons Not To Like Prediction MarketsJuly 23, 2024

    At betting shops over here in the UK there seem to be two types of big event bets. The first…

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