What is the purpose of modeling? There can be only two. The first is to say what happened, to explain. But in order to do this one must first assume what one […]
The Predictive Way Is The Only Way In Statistics: Sick Cow Edition
When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?
Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme by neo-Darwinian […]
Control Groups With No Cancers In Hormesis Data Sets
A well known paper by Duport et al. on radiation hormesis makes a statement about control groups which is not quite right. The paper is “Database of Radiogenic Cancer in Experimental Animals […]
Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty
Let’s drag the statistician’s hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we deduce the […]
The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes
The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw. See the […]
So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example
Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: “GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ”. Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read it, you […]
When Testing Parameters Might Make Sense
This example is derived from ongoing conversations with a colleague, and portions of this post (mathematified) might show up in a paper. The genesis of this example is from Ron Christensen’s 2005 […]
Example Of Bad Trend Analysis
These examples are from the BAMS article “Continental US Hurricane Landfall Frequency And Associated Damage: Observations and Future Risks” by PhiliP J. Klotzbach, Steven G. Bowen, Roger Pielke JR., and Michael Bell. […]
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