Previous post in the series (or click above on Class). Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. If you downloaded before, download again. This is version 0.21! Only the example code changed since last […]

Mandatory! Read Part I, Part II. I will ignore all comments already answered in Parts I & II. Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. If you downloaded before, download again. This is version […]

Mandatory! Read Part I. I will ignore all comments already answered in Part I. Download the code: mcmc.pred.R, mcmc.pred.examples.R. Update If you downloaded before, download again. This is version 0.2! You must […]

Introduction Here’s what we always want, but never get, using the old ways of doing statistics: The probability that some proposition Y is true given certain assumptions. Like this:      (1) Pr(Y […]

Let’s do a little science experiment together. Go into the closet and pull out an opaque sack or bag. Anything will do, even a large sock. If you can fit your hand […]

I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is “no prior”. Bayesians might not agree, but it’s true. Mayo’s right. There is […]

The graph above (biggified version here) was touted by Simon Kuestenmacher (who posts many beautiful maps). He said “This plot shows the objects that were found to be ‘the most distant object’ […]

Gaze and wonder at picture which heads this article, which I lifted from John Haman’s nifty R package ciTools. The numbers in the plot are made up whole cloth to demonstrate the […]