I was having an argument with a friend who was on his way to a conference to point out the shortcomings and over-confidence of Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). With EBM, you can’t […]
The Disparagement Of Epidemiology
Why (Scott Alexander’s) Bayesian Rationality Fails
Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug’s latest. Rather, Alexander’s (and Moldbug’s? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is. The rationality […]
Hung Jury: The Verdict On Uncertainty
This invited paper (which I forgot to post!) appeared in the festschrift for Hung T. Nguyen, previously at New Mexico State University and now at Chiang Mai University, to celebrate his entry […]
Classical Statistics Has Outlived Its Usefulness: Here’s The Fix
A PDF of this article may be downloaded here. This article is a precis of Uncertainty. Opening Act Patient walks into the doctor and says, “Doc, I saw that new ad. The […]
FREE STATS CLASS
RELEVANT ARTICLES New Paper! Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis (link) New Paper! Everything Wrong With P-values Under One Roof (link) New Paper! The Replacement For Hypothesis Testing (link) Randomization […]
The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed (Video)
Video Link The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured, and instead a […]
Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. “P-values have some good uses.” No, they don’t. I used every as in every. “P-values are fine […]
Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Bayes […]
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