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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The I-Have-Big-Muscles Fallacy

Harvard graduate walks down the street where a 50-lb sack of cement blocks his way. He reaches down to shift it but discovers that despite all his might the bulk…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A Brief Explanation Of Occam’s Razor

We're interested in whether some proposition Y is true. One explanation, perhaps causal or deterministic, or even only probabilistic, is X. Thus, Pr(Y | X) is high or equals 1.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Bayesian Metaphor Can Do More Harm Than Good: Update

Quoting from a post on vampires, "In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called 'Bayesian priors' or just 'priors'), and then you 'update' them as you receive new…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Why Is Economics Plagued By Math?

The answer is easy: because math is numbers and numbers are measurement and measurements are necessary to make a subject "scientific" in the modern sense of that word. Why should…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Quantum Mechanics, Potentiality, Ontology, Epistemology, & Probability

What is and what is known about what is are two concepts which are often entangled, especially in quantum mechanics (puns intentional). This is one of the subjects which I…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

The Ethics Of Precrime

This is Part II of our discussion of predicting individual crime. See Part I. The moral question is this: should an authority take action against you if an algorithm spits…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Paper Finds Pattern In Primes: What About Randomness & Chance?

Here's the headline in Nature: "Peculiar pattern found in 'random' prime numbers", an article which opens "Two mathematicians have found a strange pattern in prime numbers -- showing that the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Gravitational Waves And Discovering Cause

You'll have heard by now that the existence of gravitational waves have been "confirmed." The scare quotes are intentional, but not in the sense that I (necessarily) disbelieve in the…
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  1. Paul Murphy on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    hey doc Steven Hayward's substack post on "Pope Bob" https://stevehayward.substack.com/p/pope-bob includes an image and summary of a book on "evaluative…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Probability is defined on a sigma field. But what exactly is a sigma field? In simpler terms, it represents the…

  3. Johnno on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 9, 2025

    What are the political leanings of the naturally elotrocuted, and can we use them for our cause, or does their…

  4. Paul Fischer on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Always thought-provoking, William. The comments section’s a bit hostile today. To really grasp what Matt is driving at, you have…

  5. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

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