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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The I-Have-Big-Muscles Fallacy

Harvard graduate walks down the street where a 50-lb sack of cement blocks his way. He reaches down to shift it but discovers that despite all his might the bulk…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A Brief Explanation Of Occam’s Razor

We're interested in whether some proposition Y is true. One explanation, perhaps causal or deterministic, or even only probabilistic, is X. Thus, Pr(Y | X) is high or equals 1.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Bayesian Metaphor Can Do More Harm Than Good: Update

Quoting from a post on vampires, "In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called 'Bayesian priors' or just 'priors'), and then you 'update' them as you receive new…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Why Is Economics Plagued By Math?

The answer is easy: because math is numbers and numbers are measurement and measurements are necessary to make a subject "scientific" in the modern sense of that word. Why should…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Quantum Mechanics, Potentiality, Ontology, Epistemology, & Probability

What is and what is known about what is are two concepts which are often entangled, especially in quantum mechanics (puns intentional). This is one of the subjects which I…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

The Ethics Of Precrime

This is Part II of our discussion of predicting individual crime. See Part I. The moral question is this: should an authority take action against you if an algorithm spits…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Paper Finds Pattern In Primes: What About Randomness & Chance?

Here's the headline in Nature: "Peculiar pattern found in 'random' prime numbers", an article which opens "Two mathematicians have found a strange pattern in prime numbers -- showing that the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Gravitational Waves And Discovering Cause

You'll have heard by now that the existence of gravitational waves have been "confirmed." The scare quotes are intentional, but not in the sense that I (necessarily) disbelieve in the…
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  1. Uncle Mike on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025

    The Climate Catastrophe paradigm is dead. RIP. The old adherents are howling at the moon, but Science has moved on.…

  2. Cloudbuster on Don’t Lose Sleep Over Research On “Climate Change” & Sleep ApneaJuly 9, 2025

    "New York and Ohio, which are cool" Please explain to my sweat glands how Ohio is cool so I shouldn't…

  3. Cary Cotterman on What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s StudyJuly 8, 2025

    There is a significant correlation between golf and the wearing of ugly pants.

  4. Rudolph Harrier on What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s StudyJuly 8, 2025

    Yeah, the second I heard "Olmstead County" my mind went to the Mayo Clinic too. Both the Mayo Clinic proper…

  5. Briggs on What’s Wrong With The Golf Course Parkinson’s StudyJuly 8, 2025

    Mike, Ha! Thanks for that.

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