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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The I-Have-Big-Muscles Fallacy

Harvard graduate walks down the street where a 50-lb sack of cement blocks his way. He reaches down to shift it but discovers that despite all his might the bulk…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A Brief Explanation Of Occam’s Razor

We're interested in whether some proposition Y is true. One explanation, perhaps causal or deterministic, or even only probabilistic, is X. Thus, Pr(Y | X) is high or equals 1.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Bayesian Metaphor Can Do More Harm Than Good: Update

Quoting from a post on vampires, "In Bayesian inference, you start with some initial beliefs (called 'Bayesian priors' or just 'priors'), and then you 'update' them as you receive new…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Why Is Economics Plagued By Math?

The answer is easy: because math is numbers and numbers are measurement and measurements are necessary to make a subject "scientific" in the modern sense of that word. Why should…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Quantum Mechanics, Potentiality, Ontology, Epistemology, & Probability

What is and what is known about what is are two concepts which are often entangled, especially in quantum mechanics (puns intentional). This is one of the subjects which I…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

The Ethics Of Precrime

This is Part II of our discussion of predicting individual crime. See Part I. The moral question is this: should an authority take action against you if an algorithm spits…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Paper Finds Pattern In Primes: What About Randomness & Chance?

Here's the headline in Nature: "Peculiar pattern found in 'random' prime numbers", an article which opens "Two mathematicians have found a strange pattern in prime numbers -- showing that the…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Gravitational Waves And Discovering Cause

You'll have heard by now that the existence of gravitational waves have been "confirmed." The scare quotes are intentional, but not in the sense that I (necessarily) disbelieve in the…
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  1. hudbwu on On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble ReviewedDecember 17, 2025

    Funny, many decades ago I wondered why do males exist. As in, why waste 50% of a species' total biomass…

  2. hudbwu on How To Tell How Much Of “IQ” Is Inherited & How Much Is EnvironmentDecember 17, 2025

    Okay, so the data tells us that if one twin is stupid... er, I mean, if one twin scores low…

  3. Briggs on On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble ReviewedDecember 17, 2025

    Rhetocrates, Quite right.

  4. Rhetocrates on On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble ReviewedDecember 16, 2025

    I haven't finished the whole thing, but I'd like to flag one thing that may cause confusion to readers, though…

  5. John Pate on On The Form Of Species: ‘Dance To The Tune Of Life’ by Denis Noble ReviewedDecember 16, 2025

    Referring to my previous comment, it's nature via nurture. In any complex system transferring the plans to the finished item…

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