This is an editorial that I sent out to various places. I am one of the scientists that attended the recent Heartland Climate Conference in Manhattan, where I live. It…

Tim Hall at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies invited me to give a seminar on statistical hurricane modeling. A link to my presentation is below. Tim, with Stephen Jewson,…

I often say---it is even the main theme of this blog---that people are too certain. This is especially true when people report results from classical statistics, or use classical methods…

Yesterday's post was entitled, "You cannot measure a mean", which is both true and false depending---thanks to Bill Clinton for the never-ending stream of satire---on what the meaning of mean…

In part I, we learned that all surveys, and in fact all statistical models, are valid only conditionally on some population (or information). We went into nauseating detail of the…

My friends, I need your help. I have written a paper on quantifying the uncertainty of effects due to global warming, but the subject is too big for one person.…

I have returned from Madrid, where the conference went moderately well. My part was acceptable, but I could have done a better job, which I'll explain in a moment. Iberia…

There are several global climate models (GCMs) produced by many different groups. There are a half dozen from the USA, some from the UK Met Office, a well known one…