Philosophy – Page 129 – William M. Briggs

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Culture Philosophy

Studies Show Mike McQueary Did What You Would Have Done

A lot of wrist-twisting and hand-wringing over Mike McQueary's actions after he came across Penn State Coach Jerry Sandusky raping a 10-year-old boy in the showers. McQueary, who Mark Steyn…

Culture Philosophy

The Selfish Genes Of Dennett’s Atheists

If you're not busy this December 2nd and 3rd, and happen to be in the Buffalo area, you might drop in on the Center for Inquiry's symposium "Daniel Dennett and…

Philosophy Statistics

Inuitionist Math & Probability: Riemann Hypothesis Example

The principium tertii exclusi, the principle or law of the excluded middle, what is that? If there is a proposition B then it is either the case that B is…

JH on Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The WarApril 10, 2026
Would Trump attack China or Russia? Why not? Bullying is wrong. War is wrong. [H]is specialty is obfuscation… lol. And…
JH on Justice Ketanji RoarsApril 10, 2026
Although I have not taught many Black students, I have observed that the most academically talented Black students perform at…
JH on Proof!April 10, 2026
Lincoln’s ”Fragments on Slavery” c. 1854 If A. can prove, however conclusively, that he may, of right, enslave B.—why may…
Brendan P O'Sullivan on Class 85: Proper Scores of Model GoodnessApril 9, 2026
Bill - An opportunity to help fellow Vets! Look at the following - regarding jet fuel exposure to vets -…
Steve on Proof!April 9, 2026
You don't need a publisher. It's just Godwin's Law in action. For whatever reason, that seals the deal for most…