Statistics – Page 131 – William M. Briggs

The Doomsday Argument Is Doomed: Flawed Application Of Bayes

The WSJ on 27 June 2019 published an essay by William Poundstone on the hoary Doomsday Argument. Many are fooled by this equation, which contains a fundamental, even glaring, flaw.…

Statistics

The Epidemiologist Fallacy Strikes Again — Pesticides & Autism

Long-time readers will recall the epidemiologist fallacy is a shotgun marriage of the ecological fallacy and wee p-values. Make that and/or confidence intervals. For confidence intervals are equivalent to p-values…

Class Statistics

So-Called Random Numbers And Encryption: Update With Real-World Example

Psst. Hey, buddy. Word to the wise: "GQNZWZURUDPBFWDMEGBYIXGBGZRSVNHWOIQPPSH GXUVMZ". Keep it secret. That odd string of letters and spaces (well, once space) contains an encrypted message. In order to read…

Statistics

Case Study Of How Easy It Is To Go Wrong

We used to talk a lot about the amygdala here: Yet Another Study "Proves" Liberal, Conservative Brain Differences (wee ps, amygdalas), Scientists Suddenly Discover Men Don't Understand Women (wee ps,…

Class Statistics

When Testing Parameters Might Make Sense

This example is derived from ongoing conversations with a colleague, and portions of this post (mathematified) might show up in a paper. The genesis of this example is from Ron…

Statistics

SAT’s Adversity Score New Way To Enforce Racial Quotas

The College Board will soon attach Pity Points to SAT scores. The Pity Points will be used to suggest that those who scored poorly did not in fact score poorly…

Statistics

An Infinity of Null Hypotheses — Another Anti-P-Value Argument

This is extracted from this set of papers, which should be read in full. An ordinary regression model is written mu = beta_0x_1 + ... + beta_0x_p, where mu…

Statistics

Many Atheists Still Believe In Higher Powers—Whatever Those Are

A new report on atheists is of interest. It's "Understanding Unbelief: Atheists and agnostics around the world: Interim findings from 2019 research in Brazil, China, Denmark, Japan, the United Kingdom,…

John Pate on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 28, 2026
Another thing to model: the age at which the mother gives birth to the children. Mothers who give birth in…
Dennis Larkin on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
Medieval Cathars avoided sexual carnality. They fought militarily against the kings for a time, going down to defeat, while their…
JRob on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
re: Shawn Marshall Just yesterday my email folder contained a conservative political call to oppose the upcoming abortion amendment to…
C-Marie on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
Have they rallied around the mother who killed her three children because she killed her three children, , or have…
Brian (bulaoren) on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
As we read today's post on..."motherhood", a Massachusetts jury is determining the fate of a mother who killed her 3…