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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Tricky Probability Problem: Chance of Two Sons, One Born on Tuesday?

Thanks to reader Matt Lewis who sent me this link. Martin Gardner, may he rest in peace, gave us a delicious probability problem: Suppose that Mrs Smith has two children,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Statistics as Beauty; Global Warming Miscellany; SATs Biased?; More

Statistics is Beautiful? From reader Yeah, Yeah comes a link to a Wired article which assures us we should "Learn the Language of Data." It's not a pretty language, but…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Do You Really Want: Part II

Class is, thank God, rapidly coming to an end. I am sure we are all grateful. Here's an addendum to yesterday; but only briefly explained. Because of the crush of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson n+1: Measurement & Observables

Just a very crude sketch today: it is not complete by any stretch. Naturally, the students in the summer class don't receive this level of information. Best we can tell,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Somethingorother: Against the P-value

I've lost count of the lesson numbers. The definition of a p-value, here phrased in the incorrectly named "test of difference in means", is: Given the truth of a probability…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Five or Six: Abnormality

Say! What happened to lessons three through four or five? Who knows. This morning, I'm dreadfully rushed, so just a sketch. I do not expect anybody to be convinced this…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Two Again and Again: Logic is Not Opinion

Everybody: thanks for the emails. I do see them. I'll be answering all on the weekend. Would it surprise you to learn that to graduate with a degree in statistics---BS,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Lesson Two Redux: More Mysticism

Is it written into sport announcers' contract that they shall speak in nothing but cliché? Since there is always great confusion about why premises about "fairness" or "randomness" are not…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    Logic, empiricism, wisdom... These solvents are without impact for people who have, so often, survived them. I believe this is…

  2. spetzer86 on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    It's interesting that the commenters using AI prove the point that the use of a model yielding apparently random results…

  3. JH on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    When brilliant minds join forces with advanced computers that execute tasks with precision and speed by following instructions, they achieve…

  4. fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    Post script. Looks like you are hiding well, for now, from the AI in the sky. I asked it if…

  5. fergus on All Models Only Say What They Are Told To Say, And AI Is A ModelMarch 27, 2026

    Did not read the article, just copy/pasted the number list to ChatGPT and it got right back with: Yes —…

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