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Posted inStatistics

Pope Francis Says Ask Scientists About Their Uncertainties In Global Warming. Good Idea

Stream: Pope Francis Says Ask Scientists About Their Uncertainties In Global Warming. Good Idea A reporter asked the Holy Father about the recent hurricanes in the Atlantic, adding the questions…
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Posted inStatistics

Possibility Versus Probability & Decision

Philip Pilkington, author of the buyable The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory, asks a follow-up question to the material on the precautionary principle. If probability…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Video: How To Think About Statistics, Figures, And New Ideas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmMBLTz6Pp8 Hard link to the video. This post ran originally on 28 February 2015. Given the quiet weekend, I postponed our Summa Contra Gentiles until next week. It is a…
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Posted inClass Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part III: Ergodicity & All That

Read Part I, Part II Ergodic in probability has a technical definition. Without going into mathematical details (which are fine except possibly when applied), a "sequence" is defined as a…
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Posted inClass Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part II: Skin in the Game

Read Part I It is in one sense fortunate that the mathematical, or rather quantitative, roots of probability began with gambling. Routine gambles are easy to understand, and the calculations…
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Posted inClass Philosophy Statistics

Taleb’s Curious Views On Probability — Part I: I Say Probability Does Not Exist

Ye Olde Statistician points us to an essay (a book chapter?) by our old pal Nassim Nicholas Taleb called "The Logic of Risk Taking". Let's examine it. You, dear reader,…
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Posted inStatistics

Middle Ground Between Precautionary Principle & Inaction

From reader (and listener!) Phil Pilkington (there asterisks are original): Hi Matt, Loved your speech. Hyperskeptical Economist that I am, M Taleb did us some great favours in outlining the…
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Posted inStatistics

DDP: Quack Cures For What Doesn’t Ail Us, Part II

I'm at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness meeting in No-History City, Louisiana. Here's Part II of (an earlier draft of) the speech I gave Saturday. Consider donating $1 for every…
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    Every day there's some paper or article claiming that something is good for you, followed the next day by some…

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    "The unsweetened kids were born late 1951 to 1954, while the sugar-available kids were born after rationing ending in July…

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    It's also not coincidental that the control group is, by the standards of the study, entirely younger than the test…

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