Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…

Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…

See if this analogy makes sense. A ramp onto which you loose a ball, which can roll down and fall into one of three slots. The configuration is such that…

The title says it all. But its presence implies, and it is true, that people often mistake the two. If you decide to bet fifty bucks the USA beats Germany,…

I know, I know: we're sick to death of regression, but we have to cover the biggest error, which is how the Deadly Sin of Reification happens. You have a…

Once again the lack of metaphysical training has led some scientists to say an incredibly silly thing. That free will "could be the result of 'background noise' in the brain."…