Statistics – Page 175 – William M. Briggs

Goon Squad Fails To Distract Public From Fact That Climate Models Stink: Update 3

If you're new to the site, don't forget to check out the Classic Posts page. Our continuing walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is postponed until next week. Feel free to…

Statistics

Response To Trenberth Over “Why Models Run Hot”

Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. A reporter from Nature who could not be brought to understand science was more important than fallacy…

Culture Statistics

Reporting On So-Called Climate Reporters: Update 4

Update Be sure to come back on Sunday and see my wrap-up column. The first section of this article contains background on the subject which should be read, the second…

Culture Statistics

Give Up Carbon For Lent?

Ought to be easy to give up carbon for Lent, as the Global Catholic Climate Movement suggests1. Step one: don't exhale and don't eat---your breath and food are chock full…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part III

Read Part I, Part II Part III This brings us to the second reason for measuring model goodness. Or rather an incorrect implementation of it. A lot of folks announce…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part II: Update

Read Part I Part II What we're after is a score that calculates how close a prediction is to its eventual observation when the prediction is a probability. Now there…

Statistics

Pascal’s Pensées, A Tour: V

Since our walk through Summa Contra Gentiles is going so well, why not let's do the same with Pascal's sketchbook on what we can now call Thinking Thursdays. We'll use…

Statistics

How Good Is That Model? Scoring Rules For Forecasts: Part I

Part I of III All probability (which is to say, statistical) models have a predictive sense; indeed, they are only really useful in that sense. We don't need models to…

Rudolph Harrier on In Which I Shockingly Agree With Sabine That Most Science Is Of Little Or No ValueSeptember 23, 2025
I was always suspicious of quantum factorization, due to how the results were always special cases. It was always claimed…
Uncle Mike on The Charlie Kirk Killing Theories: The (Non)-Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories 2September 23, 2025
The world is awash in conspiracy theories. And in dire reports. It's interesting that the Hitler Youth guy is also…
Zundfolge on The Charlie Kirk Killing Theories: The (Non)-Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories 2September 23, 2025
This constant need to turn every murder of a prominent person into a JFK level conspiracy is tiresome. Bullets do…
Mark on In Which I Shockingly Agree With Sabine That Most Science Is Of Little Or No ValueSeptember 22, 2025
In light of today’s news from the WH, I’m eager to hear what you make of the link between Tylenol…
John Pate on In Which I Shockingly Agree With Sabine That Most Science Is Of Little Or No ValueSeptember 22, 2025
The powers that be have substituted for religion with Bad Science, it's not wasting money because it's furthering the agendas…