AMS conference report: day 3

More on hurricanes today. Jim Elsner, with co-author Tom Jagger, both from Florida State University started off by warning against using naive statistical methods on count data, such as hurricanes.…

AMS conference report: day 4

The AMS is re-issuing its statement on the necessity of using probability in forecasts. I am on the committee that is re-drafting, or, as they to say, "wordsmithing", it. If…

Is climatology a pseudoscience?

The short answer, I will disappoint many of you by saying, is no. Like I wrote before, climatologists are generally nice people genuinely struggling with understanding the immense complexities of…

You cannot measure a mean

I often say---it is even the main theme of this blog---that people are too certain. This is especially true when people report results from classical statistics, or use classical methods…