Posted inStatistics
Protesters gather in Copenhagen. Why?
Be sure to visit again tomorrow, for another article in this series. Time is up. Time to fight passion with calm reason. That always works, doesn't it? Those thousands of…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Malthus Was Wrong, But Not Why You Think
It's hard to think of a historical writer more misunderstood than Thomas Malthus. A week doesn't go by without somebody dropping his name, but only to show how wrong he…
Posted inStatistics
Seasonal Climate Forecasts Do Not Have Skill
David Lavers is the lead author in a GRL paper "A multiple model assessment of seasonal climate forecast skill for applications." Lavers et al. checked eight different climate models and…
Posted inStatistics
Climate Model Uncertainty: Part I
Would you check the results of a model with another model? Before you answer, be sure you know what the question is. A model---whether it is physical, statistical, mathematical, or…
Posted inStatistics
Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II
Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
Posted inStatistics
Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast
Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
Posted inStatistics
2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part I
Let's suppose everything you have heard about global warming is true. It really will warm by a half-degree Centigrade by 2050, or even by three-quarters of a degree, or whatever.…
Posted inStatistics
Gladwell, Gottman, and Abraham on Predicting Divorce
Despite the best efforts of their wives, some married men remain recalcitrant and uncooperative. They refuse to or are incapable of taking their training seriously. Some of these men, who…
