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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Evolution Under Fixed Constraints; Or, Why Random Changes Don’t Cut It

See if this analogy makes sense. A ramp onto which you loose a ball, which can roll down and fall into one of three slots. The configuration is such that…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Do You Believe In Global Warming Because Of The Seriousness Of The Charges?

An activist tells you, "Based on my theory of rampant, out-of-control global warming, otters, driven mad by the heat, will take to the streets and destroy mankind, just like apes…
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Posted inStatistics

Class Report: How Not To Teach Statistics

It's over. Two solid weeks of 9 to 5 to 9 and beyond statistics. Plus a few cocktails and cookouts and camaraderie. I'm exhausted. The students are mostly later early…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Casual Sex Is Good for You, Says New Biased Study

In a ridiculously biased "study", a researcher has shown that some college students who self-select to participate in a study of "causal" sex and who say they like having "casual"…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Probabilities Aren’t Decisions

The title says it all. But its presence implies, and it is true, that people often mistake the two. If you decide to bet fifty bucks the USA beats Germany,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Biggest Error In Regression

I know, I know: we're sick to death of regression, but we have to cover the biggest error, which is how the Deadly Sin of Reification happens. You have a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Free Will The Result Of ‘Background Noise’?

Once again the lack of metaphysical training has led some scientists to say an incredibly silly thing. That free will "could be the result of 'background noise' in the brain."…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Applicability Of Experiments

Every probability problem has the form Pr(Q|E), where Q is the proposition of interest and E the evidence, premises, or "data" probative (or not) of E. Change the evidence, change…
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  1. spetzer86 on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025

    I'm assuming they only asked pilots of fixed-wing aircraft and not those rotary-wing pilots flying in the Washington, DC area.

  2. spetzer86 on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025

    A person could still game your system by doing something complicated but not impossible. For example, repeatedly selecting one card…

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    > Today they take people who docs declare are in “irreversible coma” etc. and not “brain dead”. They are wheeled…

  4. hudbwu on Lady Pilots Better Than Men, Says The ScienceAugust 7, 2025

    A simple way to improve the study is to fire the subjects that don't fulfil some perfomance criterion. That would…

  5. Lou on Class 60: Does This Guy Have ESP? 1August 7, 2025

    Hello, Class 60: I am sticking with it, and its not at all too difficult. Please keep going at your…

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