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William M. Briggs

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Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics

On Truly Random Numbers

Party trick for you. I'm thinking of a number between 1 and 4. Can you guess it? Two? Nope. Three? Nope. And not one or four either. I know what…
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Posted inStatistics

The Letter The Lancet Wouldn’t Publish

Here's the title of a big new peer-reviewed paper in The Lancet: Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the…
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Posted inStatistics

Live From Heartland Climate Conference, Wrap Up

Profound thanks I cannot say enough about the generosity of my benefactor, who not only footed the bill for my trip, but wined and dined and rummed our Secret Society…
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Posted inStatistics

Live From Heartland Climate Conference, Day Two

What happened to Day One? If I find out, you'll be the first to know. Through the extreme generosity of one of us, I'm here in Las Vegas at Heartland's…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Evolution Under Fixed Constraints; Or, Why Random Changes Don’t Cut It

See if this analogy makes sense. A ramp onto which you loose a ball, which can roll down and fall into one of three slots. The configuration is such that…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Do You Believe In Global Warming Because Of The Seriousness Of The Charges?

An activist tells you, "Based on my theory of rampant, out-of-control global warming, otters, driven mad by the heat, will take to the streets and destroy mankind, just like apes…
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Posted inStatistics

Class Report: How Not To Teach Statistics

It's over. Two solid weeks of 9 to 5 to 9 and beyond statistics. Plus a few cocktails and cookouts and camaraderie. I'm exhausted. The students are mostly later early…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Casual Sex Is Good for You, Says New Biased Study

In a ridiculously biased "study", a researcher has shown that some college students who self-select to participate in a study of "causal" sex and who say they like having "casual"…
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  1. Ronald Conneely on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 20, 2025

    Great analysis as usual but be careful, you are bordering on that dreded (R----t) area. Would hate to lose your…

  2. Williis Eschenbach on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    Thanks, Matt, that's what I figured, just wanted to verify it. w.

  3. Briggs on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    Willis, Sure, you can change the model to remove the probability leakage. Careful modelers would. The vast majority would not,…

  4. William Ward Eschenbach on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayNovember 20, 2025

    As usual, most fascinating. This may be a foolish question, but since the minimum score is 200, what happens if…

  5. KGB on Black Women Can’t Do Physics As Well As White Men, Says ResearcherNovember 20, 2025

    And if my aunt had balls...

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