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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

The Logic Puzzle That Is “Stumping The Internet.” Update: Now With Solution

The Washington Post thinks the puzzle above is hideously difficult and says that it has become an "obsession". The writer there certainly finds it sweat-inducing: "As the problem spread far…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Space’s 10 Mistakes People Make When Arguing Science

Reader Ken pointed us to Space.com's click-me-click-me! article "The 10 Mistakes People Make When Arguing Science". Since everybody loves numbered lists, I'll duplicate their efforts here, using their mistakes. Isn't…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Masters Statistics & (Some) Predictions

Here's a view of the winning scores from par since the inception of the tournament. The early years saw little variability, but since the 60s there were a lot more…
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Posted inStatistics

P-Value Hacking Is Finally Being Noticed

Since I'm on the road, all typos today are free of charge. Some reasonably good news to report. A peer-reviewed paper: "The fickle P value generates irreproducible results" by Lewis…
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Posted inStatistics

What Evidence Would Persuade You That Man-Made Climate Change Is Real?

Somebody named Ronald Bailey (he isn't anybody I know) at the inaptly named Reason asked the good question which heads this post. Second thought: the question is awful. No scientist…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Global Warming Hypocrisy: Or, Science Is Politics

Lefties take money, too In an interview with far-left New York Times, activist and part-time scientist Michael Oppenheimer says "nothing follows" from his taking moola from the EDF (Environmental Defense…
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Posted inStatistics

Bill Nye The Science Guy Confuses Scientific Uncertainty Versus Doubt

On the road, so something quick. Reader Paul Mullen writes: Briggs, A fellow at the salt mine was thoughtful enough to leave a copy in the break room of April's…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Probability’s Empirical Bias

Bit of logic (a favorite example) from our teacher Lewis Carroll: given "All cats understand French and that some chickens are cats", what can we say about the proposition "Some…
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    Every day there's some paper or article claiming that something is good for you, followed the next day by some…

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    Always fun watching the lectures.

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    The epidemiologist fallacies are always enjoyable. It seems that there is a rash of scientists now saying that previous scientists…

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    "The unsweetened kids were born late 1951 to 1954, while the sugar-available kids were born after rationing ending in July…

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    It's also not coincidental that the control group is, by the standards of the study, entirely younger than the test…

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