The title says it all. But its presence implies, and it is true, that people often mistake the two. If you decide to bet fifty bucks the USA beats Germany, I cannot […]
Probabilities Aren’t Decisions
What That Spurious Correlation Website Tells Us About Statistics
Many (thanks!) readers sent links to Tyler Vigen’s Spurious Correlations, whose motto is “Discover a new correlation – an interesting spurious correlation each day!” My favorite is tying the yearly number of […]
A Common Fallacy In Global Warming Arguments
Our post today is provided by Terry Oldberg, M.S.E., M.S.E.E., P.E. Engineer-Scientist, Citizen of the U.S. That’s a lot of letters, Terry! Oldberg joined our Spot the Fallacy Contest, which had been […]
The One-True-Religion Fallacy. (It’s Not What You Think)
At the end of the eponymous movie, the slave army led by gladiator-cum-general Spartacus (Kirk Dougla) lies defeated before the creator of the First Triumvirate, General Marcus Licinius Crassus (Laurence Olivier). But […]
Monday Mail
Inbox I’m several hundred emails behind. This weekend, always the slowest of the year, allowed me to catch up some. I appreciate very much all the missives and apologize if everybody doesn’t […]
Good Ways Of Speaking About Truth
“Quid est veritas?” Pilate asked. Famously, his interlocutor did not answer, perhaps because Pilate didn’t give Him the chance. Then Pilate may have been (understandably) addled because the Answer was standing there. […]
Precaution: Part I — Guest Post by J.C. Hanekamp
The can things with the sharp little edges That can cut your fingers when you’re not looking The soft little things on the floor that you step on They can all be […]
More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance
Yesterday we looked at NCDC’s claim that the 13-month stretch of “above-normal” temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let’s today clarify the criticism. The NCDC had a […]
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