Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God. I’m against […]
Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive
Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]
Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?
Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email. I don’t […]
Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Bayes […]
Against Moldbug’s Reservationist Epistemology: Reason Alone Is Not Reasonable
For most, Mencius Moldbug will need no introduction; for those who do not know him, this review of his work is succinct (which Moldbug never was) and fair. We’ll not discuss his […]
Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves
All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, so go […]
Nature: “‘One-size-fits-all’ threshold for P values under fire.” Good. Shoot Them All Down
Nature magazine reports “‘One-size-fits-all’ threshold for P values under fire: Scientists hit back at a proposal to make it tougher to call findings statistically significant.” Researchers are at odds over when to […]
Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts
This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we’re 1.5 years out, it’s time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again tomorrow! Chapter […]
Recent Comments