FREE CLASS
UNCERTAINTY & PROBABILITY THEORY: THE LOGIC OF SCIENCE Links to YouTube, Rumble, Bitchute, and Twitter inside each class. Jayne's Book (first part). Class 1: Logic teaser (blog, Substack). Class 2:…
Posted inStatistics
The Epidemiologist (P-value + Ecological) Fallacy Exposed (Video)
Video Link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV-IRdTWG2c The Epidemiologist Fallacy marries the Ecological Fallacy with the P-value Fallacy. The Ecological Fallacy is when it is said X causes Y, but X is not measured,…
Posted inStatistics
Stop Using P-values & Parameter-Centric Methods
P-values should be banned. Every use of them involves a fallacy or mistake in thinking. "P-values have some good uses." No, they don't. I used every as in every. "P-values…
Posted inStatistics
Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article "The concept of probability is not as simple as you think" by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular…
Posted inStatistics
Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive
Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn't Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God.…
Posted inStatistics
Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks
I stole today's title from David Papineau's essay "Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science", which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early…
Posted inClass Statistics
There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is "no prior". Bayesians might not agree, but it's true. Mayo's right.…
