All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Bayes […]
Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance
Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think
Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]
Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks
I stole today’s title from David Papineau’s essay “Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science“, which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early to mid […]
There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either
I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is “no prior”. Bayesians might not agree, but it’s true. Mayo’s right. There is […]
Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves
All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, so go […]
Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?
Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email. I don’t […]
Against Moldbug’s Reservationist Epistemology: Reason Alone Is Not Reasonable
For most, Mencius Moldbug will need no introduction; for those who do not know him, this review of his work is succinct (which Moldbug never was) and fair. We’ll not discuss his […]
Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts
This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we’re 1.5 years out, it’s time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again tomorrow! Chapter […]
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