# Search results for ‘bayes bayesian’

## Coronavirus Update VIII: Blown Forecasts & Peak Performance

All the good stuff, caveats, code, data sources and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, Update VI, Update VII, Bayes […]

## Poor Richard Carrier Goes On The Offensive

Six years ago I wrote a small, daily piece (Bayes Theorem Proves Jesus Existed And Didn’t Exist) about the use of probability in proving or disproving the existence of God. I’m against […]

## Yep, Probability Is Not As Simple As You Think

Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]

## Bayesian Theorists Were Little Better Than Cranks

I stole today’s title from David Papineau’s essay “Thomas Bayes and the crisis in science“, which many readers sent in. When I was in grad school bad in the early to mid […]

## There Is No Prior? What’s A Bayesian To Do? Relax, There’s No Model, Either

I saw colleague Deborah Mayo casting, or rather trying to cast, aspersions on Bayesian philosophy by saying there is “no prior”. Bayesians might not agree, but it’s true. Mayo’s right. There is […]

## Coronavirus Update VI — Calm Yourselves

All the good stuff, caveats, code, and explanations are linked, some in Update III, and the most important in Update II, Update IV, Update V, and Bayes Theorem & Coronavirus, so go […]

## Is Presuming Innocence A Bayesian Prior?

Note An earlier version of this post was accidentally sent out in unedited form. My enemies caused me to hit the wrong button. Subscribers: apologies for the near duplicate email. I don’t […]

## Uncertainty: The Soul of Models, Probability & Statistics. Chapter Abstracts

This post originally appeared right before the Uncertainty did. Now that we’re 1.5 years out, it’s time for a re-post. Buy it now, but it today, and buy it again tomorrow! Chapter […]