Statistics – Page 208 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Dan MacDougald on Peer-Reviewed Research: Men Find Looking At Nearly Naked Women DistractingJuly 22, 2025
Reminds me of the study that found college women were more likely to have hook up sex after drinking alcohol
Peer-Reviewed Research: Men Find Looking At Nearly Naked Women Distracting – William M. Briggs on Peer-reviewed research: Men find looking at nearly naked women distractingJuly 22, 2025
[…] This classic column originally ran on 12 June 2008. […]
Media Lament State Dept Cuts, Ignore Job Wreckage From Past Democratic Admins on The Myth Of Killer Mercury: Guest Post By Willie Soon & Paul DriessenJuly 21, 2025
[…] generating plants with equal zeal, using questionable-to-bogus claims about climate change, mercury, and fine particulates to justify its actions. One…
Layoffs at – Versus Because of – Federal Agencies - The Post & Email on The Myth Of Killer Mercury: Guest Post By Willie Soon & Paul DriessenJuly 20, 2025
[…] generating plants with equal zeal, using questionable to bogus claims about climate change, mercury and fine particulates to justify…
Kevin McMillen on The Hierarchy Of Intelligences & IQ: We’re Not As Smart As We ThinkJuly 19, 2025
Is this article proof that you didn’t score very well on a recent IQ test?