Posted inStatistics
Same-Sex Marriage For And Against: Part II
Read Part I. Question 2 Allard In question 2, Mr. Briggs asked the question "why two?" and later says that we can't use the historical fact that marriage is traditionally…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Objective Bayes Vs. Logical Probability (Vs. Frequentism)
Reader and colleague JH has rightly taken me to task (via email) for incorrectly calling, or rather misleadingly labeling, logical probability "objective Bayes." She pointed to this set of lecture…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Direct And Inverse Probability: The Bayesian Way
Class is almost over! Just three days (including today) left. I'm way behind reading comments. All logic, of which probability is an example, begins with a fixed list of premises…
Posted inStatistics
Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn; Part Last
Read Part V From his page 55 (as before slightly edited for HTML/LaTex): Consider the case of a binary event where the two outcomes are success, S, or failure F…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V
Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…
Posted inStatistics
An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2
The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV
Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III
A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…