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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Summary Of Statistical Evidence Against Global Warming

This is from my Classic Posts page, but seems appropriate to highlight in the wake of the latest gloom and doom from the IPCC. If you're looking for just one…
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Posted inStatistics

How The 95% IPCC Certainty Falls To The Ground

Busy times at the Briggs ranch. The Evidence series will continue next week. For now, some IPCC fun. The Consensus says its 95% sure that the man has caused the…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Armed EPA Ignores Subpoena, Conducts Secret Science, More!

Call the EPA's rule-making Nancy-Pelosi science: you must first pass the regulations before you find out the evidence for them. No: That's not quite right. Because even after its regulations…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

On The Evidence From Experiments: Part II

Read Part I first. Outcome 3. This sound like good news for you, since all treatment Bobs got better and no placebo Bobs did. Congratulations! The treatment might have caused…
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Posted inStatistics

The Political Science Of The IPCC

Since the IPCC festival begins this week, I'm alternating posts like this with the series started yesterday. In this thing called Science, just as in other human affairs, one can…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

On The Evidence From Experiments: Part I

This is going to start slow, unwind at a leisurely pace, and finish, for some, with a depressing conclusion, though we won't get there today. Here's the setup. You've invented…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Abortion Safety: Doctors V. Nurses & Physician Assistants & Midwives—Part II

Update 4 Too late. 10 October 2013. Update 4 Moved this to top because the bill allowing non-doctors to perform abortions is on Gov. Brown's desk. He'll likely sign, but…
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Posted inStatistics

How To Mislead With P-values: Logistic Regression Example

Today's evidence is not new; is, in fact, well known. Well, make that just plain known. It's learned and then forgotten, dismissed. Everybody knows about these kinds of mistakes, but…
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  1. John Pate on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 30, 2026

    I would press the red button because it's the red button. The bigger the red button the harder you hit…

  2. Polybius II on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    "their Other Lives’ Value premise is something vague about man, but not men" I am reminded of a british comedian…

  3. Johnno on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    But do we get time to explain to everyone and have them all sit down and have a discussion before…

  4. gareth on Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: ExamplesApril 29, 2026

    Timestamp 21:35: A "correction" from 0.8 to 1.0 is a "correction factor" of 1.25, not 0.2 (akshully wot you mean…

  5. Cato on The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising AnswerApril 29, 2026

    There’s no point to a world without me; of course I press Red.

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