Statistics – Page 222 – William M. Briggs

Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V

Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…

Statistics

An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2

The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…

Philosophy Statistics

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Heresolong on Desperate Need For Equality: AP Exam PerformanceFebruary 11, 2026
I can't but I don't understand most of the abbreviations. I look forward to your analysis.
Brian (bulaoren) on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
addendum; As I think back, that was probably the 1976 Dem. primary.
Brian (bulaoren) on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
While butting heads with Ted Kennedy, over the 1980 Democratic presidential primary, John Connally said something like; "At least I…
McChuck on Some Sanity: Experts Sued For Creating Gender DelusionsFebruary 10, 2026
Everybody remembers the Nazi book burning. The Left won't shut up about it. Almost nobody talks about what books were…
NLR on Why The Recent Claims Of AGI Fail: Plus, A New Test For AGIFebruary 10, 2026
The main reason people believe in AGI is because they want to. People want a superintelligent machine that will solve…