Posted inStatistics
Jumping The Infinity Shark: An Answer To Senn; Part Last
Read Part V From his page 55 (as before slightly edited for HTML/LaTex): Consider the case of a binary event where the two outcomes are success, S, or failure F…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Bayes Always Works: An Answer To Senn; Part V
Read Part IV. We're almost done. Only one more after this. There are examples without number of the proper use of Bayes's Theorem: the probability you have cancer given a…
Posted inStatistics
An Ensemble Of Models Is Completely Meaningful, Statistically: Update 2
The Answer to Senn will continue on Monday. Look for my Finger Lakes winery tour tasting notes Sunday! Several readers asked me to comment on an ensemble climate forecasting post…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV
Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III
A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II
Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I
Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…
Posted inStatistics
Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R
Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…