Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV
In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III
We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II
The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I
The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…
Posted inCulture Statistics
Something To Be Thankful For: Climategate 2.0
Thanks to Mr, or Mrs, Anonymous, that generous individual who has graced us with a new batch of emails from the world's top climate scientists. These new missives are guaranteed…
Posted inStatistics
Romney’s Obama Number
Physicists calculate what is called the "Einstein Number."1 It is a measure of closeness. If you published a paper with that most celebrated scientist, you have an Einstein Number of…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Inuitionist Math & Probability: Riemann Hypothesis Example
The principium tertii exclusi, the principle or law of the excluded middle, what is that? If there is a proposition B then it is either the case that B is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Another Reason To Abandon P-values; Or Another Way To Cheat
If you're a scientist, soft or hard, who routinely uses statistics, it's likely that your funding, and therefore your career, the very wellness of your being hinges on discovering statistically…