Statistics – Page 260 – William M. Briggs

Super Bowl Indicator Busted: A Sports/Markets Indicator for the Next Century—Guest Post by Doug Magowan

Doug Magowan spends his days poring over financial numbers. Today he offers us, tongue firmly in cheek, a new way to get rich quick. All you have to do is…

Statistics

Planet Earth Al Gore Explains ‘Snowmageddon’: Fox News Story

I was quoted by Gene Koprowski in his Fox News story "Planet Earth Al Gore Explains 'Snowmageddon'". (This accounted for the several hundred Google and other search engine redirects to…

Statistics

Are Tree Rings Low Pass Temperature Filters?

I don't know the answer to this question: I am not an expert in this area, and I haven't the time or resources to track down the data to discover…

Culture Statistics

Will The Religious Out-Breed Us All?

Thanks to long-time reader and contributer Ari Schwartz for bringing this to our attention. "It is widely agreed that religion has biological foundations---that belief in the supernatural, obedience to authority…

Statistics

The Similarities Between Psychics And Global Warming Activists

The statistical evidence series will continue after the weekend. "I see the letter G." The woman closed her eyes, cocked her head, and looked inwardly. She became grave, tense. "There's...wait…

Philosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part III

To clarify: to prove false means to demonstrate a valid argument with a certain conclusion. If a theory/model says an event is merely unlikely---make it as unlikely as you like,…

Philosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part II

I hope all understand that we are not just discussing statistics and probability models: what is true here is true for all theories/models (mathematics, physics, chemistry, climate, etc.). Read Part…

Philosophy Statistics

Model Selection and the Difficulty of Falsifying Probability Models: Part I

These next posts are in the way of being notes to myself. Logic is the study of the relation between statements. For example, if "All green men are irascible, and…

Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…
JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Is there evidence that people believe probabilities, parameters, or mathematical objects exist physically in nature? The fact that mathematicians use…
JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025
Relevance is made more difficult when Y is allowed to vary, but the underlying idea is the same. Probability offers…
Tim on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 8, 2025
What are you playing at, Briggs? Some high-falutin' model equation junk that'll get twisted by politicians in the end anyway?…
Milton Hathaway on AI Cannot Hallucinate Nor LieMay 8, 2025
I have been making heavy use of the more well-known LLMs lately. I use them almost exclusively as "regurgitation engines",…