Statistics – Page 266 – William M. Briggs

The Great Bayesian Switch

Update: See this post on the definition of confidence and credible intervals. Submitted for your approval, a new paper. A polemic describing in nascent terms the paradise that awaits us…

Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part IV

There is a technical distinction between a scenario and a prediction, though the line is fine and often disputable. Many scenarios are merely intolerably loose, and therefore useless, predictions. The…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part III

This inescapable fact, that the conditioning evidence is only assumed and is therefore subjectively defined, is responsible for much acrimony about accuracy. Thus the reason we attempt to eliminate wiggle…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part II

Thanks to DAV for reminding me of a clarification. See yesterday's comments. This post is mostly bookkeeping. Tomorrow we do more examples. Sometimes, in contracts as in predictions, certain "unexpected…

Philosophy Statistics

What A Prediction Is And What It Is Not: Part I

I say that the Detroit Tigers, the baseball team---baseball being the most sublime of all sports, and this team being the game's most stalwart representative---will beat the Boston Red Sox…

Statistics

Statistics Compared To Ladies Of Ill Repute?

While Theoretical Statistics is (mainly) a decent albeit rather boring mathematical discipline (Probability Theory is much more exciting), so called Applied Statistics is in its big part a whore. Finding…

Book review Statistics

What’s Up With The Sun? A New Book — Guest Post by Pål Brekke

Pål Brekke as a new book about the orange orb of delight that hovers over us. Our Explosive Sun is a colorful introduction that would be good for newcomers or…

Statistics

I’m Selected As An IPCC Expert Reviewer

Update Dear William Briggs, The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) Co-Chairs are pleased to announce the Expert Review of the First Order Draft (FOD) of the WGI contribution to the…

hudbwu on My Horrible Interaction With AIJuly 14, 2026
@Rudolph Harrier: it's weird that you mention D&D in relation to LLMs. In my experience, nothing shows the utter impotence…
hudbwu on My Horrible Interaction With AIJuly 14, 2026
A moment of silence for people who still test "AI" tools, so we who don't use them could know what…
hudbwu on University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEingJuly 14, 2026
And then people wonder why USA gets it's butt kicked in war.
Cloudbuster on University of California Prof Tries To Save System From DIEingJuly 14, 2026
Cary Cotterman: "Her ambition, hilariously, was to become a civil rights lawyer." Pretty good odds she succeeded and is busily…
Myster Mars on Why British & EU Rulers Are Juicing War With RussiaJuly 14, 2026
In Mike Pompeo's defense, we need only look at Russia’s relentless crackdown on the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church. Lenin first…