Update This post is mandatory reading for those discussing global average temperature. I mean it: exceedingly brief and given only with respect to a univariate time series, such as operationally…

Read the first entry in this series. All of what follows will appear ridiculously obvious to those who have had no statistical training. Those who have must struggle. In a…

The man who took the knife and slit the throat of the woman whose money and body he wanted could not help himself. But the judge who sentenced that man…

I am always struggling with (my limited ability of) finding ways to describe the philosophy behind logical probability, especially to people who have a difficult time unlearning classical frequentist theory.…

How many pads of paper do I have on my desk right now? How many books are on my shelves this minute? You don't know the answer to any of…

Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…

We made rather merry at the Chapter House last night, an annual tradition. Class begins in two hours. I can still hear the vuvus. Sheesh. Statements about the unknown made…

Say! What happened to lessons three through four or five? Who knows. This morning, I'm dreadfully rushed, so just a sketch. I do not expect anybody to be convinced this…