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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast

Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent. The Obama administration will create a new definition of poverty, one that changes as a function of how…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part I

Would you check the results of a model with another model? Before you answer, be sure you know what the question is. A model---whether it is physical, statistical, mathematical, or…
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  1. C. P. Benischek on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025

    Evolution. As Stephen Jay Gould once sort of said, the lack of a single example in the fossil record of…

  2. John Pate on The Unseen Bias In All ScienceJuly 15, 2025

    Sigh. Just read a lot more from the London School. The first thing you have to decide, before you even…

  3. Anonymous on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025

    Anything to do with extraterrestrial aliens, aka God, visiting and messing with humans using their superior technology. Plenty of humans…

  4. C-Marie on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 15, 2025

    I do not have a clue, but I am sooo impressed with so many replies and amazing understanding! God bless,…

  5. polybius on Reader Opinion Requested: What Science Do You Find Sketchy, Exaggerated Or Wrong?July 14, 2025

    Artificial "intlligence". These "AI" entities are machines. Software running on an electronic computer. They can never be intelligent, nor can…

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