Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Confidence Intervals, Logic, Induction
Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Truth of Things: When Probability & Statistics Cannot Be Used
I am always struggling with (my limited ability of) finding ways to describe the philosophy behind logical probability, especially to people who have a difficult time unlearning classical frequentist theory.…
Posted inFun Statistics
Poem Code Challenge Solution
Back in September we surrendered to our geek roots and described poem codes. These are a handy method of enciphering short messages in the absence of electronic equipment. A poem…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Is Experimental Economics Irrational?
Everybody knows there's no such thing as money. So how come everybody acts like it's real? In particular, why do economists and other similar creatures find the lack of "rationality"…
Posted inStatistics
My Answers to Willis Eschenbach’s 14 + 2 Questions
Repost Mr Eschenbach had not had the chance to respond to this article before the two weeks wherein comments are automatically closed have elapsed. This re-post will allow him, and…
Posted inStatistics
What Can Volcanic Dust Models Tell Us About Cap & Trade?
Say Eyjafjallajokull three times fast. I wish I could say it once. I've heard it in so many different forms since it blew its stack that I can't be sure…
Posted inStatistics
The Pournelle vs. Nolan Chart: Political Throwdown
Before Jerry Pournelle began writing science fiction; before, that is, he teamed with Larry Niven to write the classic Lucifer's Hammer1, he was a political scientist. Pournelle was dissatisfied with…
Posted inStatistics
Russia Subtracted Most People; India Added Most.
It's Friday and time for something light. In 2006, Russia lost 732,000 people. Don't bother searching for them, because most of them were never born. Its neighbor Ukraine also misplaced…