Last week of teaching! Randomness is not a cause. Neither is chance. It is always a mistake to say things like “explainable by chance”, “random change”, “the differences are random”, “unlikely to […]
On Being Certain There’s No Certainty
Neurologist Robert Burton describes this “delusion of certainty” in his book On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You’re Not: “Despite how certainty feels, it is neither a conscious choice […]
Why Falsifiability, Though Flawed, Is Alluring: Part I
A theory is said not to be scientific unless it is falsifiable. This is an understandable definition, but as something philosophically useful it fails because most theories scientists hold are not falsifiable. […]
Why Falsifiability, Though Flawed, Is Alluring: Part II Climate Model Example
Three-card Monte Pseudo FalsificationRead Part I Take the various theories of the doom which await us when global warming finally strikes. Like Sharknadoes. Or, better, take the theory of global warming itself; […]
To Coyne A Review: Did Jerry Coyne Really Read David Bentley Hart’s Book?
It took Jerry Coyne a while, but it appears—or rather, I should say there is weak and not overly convincing evidence—that the man has finally read David Bentley Hart’s The Experience of […]
Teaching Journal: Day 9—Hypothesis Testing: Part II
A review. We have sales data from two campaigns, A and B, data in which we choose (as a premise) to quantify our uncertainty with normal distributions. We assume the “null” hypothesis […]
The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong
Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the “Odds Are, It’s Wrong” article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume that you […]
Lesson Two Again and Again: Logic is Not Opinion
Everybody: thanks for the emails. I do see them. I’ll be answering all on the weekend. Would it surprise you to learn that to graduate with a degree in statistics—BS, MS, or […]
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