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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

In Defense Of Peter Kreeft: A Response To Brafford

Peter Kreeft, a philosopher whose surname does not sound like it is spelled, placed in Touchstone the article "Clashing Symbols: The Loss of Aristotelian Logic & the Social, Moral, &…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Data Is The Data, Not The Model: With Climatology Time Series Example

How not to plot The following plot was sent to me yesterday for comment. I cannot disclose the sender, nor the nature of the data, but neither of these are…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Does The Regression Equation Mean? Causality? Something Else?

Saw this tweet this fine morning: https://twitter.com/MarkThoma/status/276542962622668800 and downloaded the paper at the landing site, co-authored by Judea Pearl, he of Causality fame (a recommended book). Pearl and a co-author…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That

Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Aristotle On Non-Contradiction: Why UN Chief Ban Ki Moon’s Views On Free Speech Are Invalid

The simplest version The Philosopher gave is this: It is impossible to hold the same thing to be and not to be. If something is a "Quantum Superposition" it cannot…
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Posted inBook review Culture Philosophy Statistics

Reasoning To Belief: Feser’s The Last Superstition: A Refutation of the New Atheism — Part Last: Skulls Full Of Nothing

Don't Think Read Part I, Part II, Part III, Part Interlude, Part IV, Part V, Part VI. Part Last. Buy the book ($12.92 as of last glance). There is a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…
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  1. spaceranger on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    Two things I can never figure out are UFO pictures and police body cam videos.

  2. Dave Narby on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    There's been some pretty clear ones lately, at least to the resolution of the camera used, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcEEXLOORLI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zkZ3x1T0QU This…

  3. James on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 22, 2026

    The same logic applies to the phenomenon of "ball lightning". It sounds credible, but there are no photos of it…

  4. Uncle Mike on Blessed Memorial Day; No Class; See You WednesdayMay 21, 2026

    Please enjoy your well-earned respite. Warmth is indeed a boon and blessing -- it's in the eighties here today and…

  5. Cary D Cotterman on Why There Are (Probably) No UFOs: “Climate Change”May 20, 2026

    There are clear photographs of just about any phenomenon imaginable, regardless of how fast, distant, small, or ephemeral it may…

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