Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

We started by learning that probability is hard and not always quantifiable. For instance, I imagine many of you would have judged it more likely than not that the Supreme…

A review. We have sales data from two campaigns, A and B, data in which we choose (as a premise) to quantify our uncertainty with normal distributions. We assume the…

The joke is old and hoary and so well known that I risk the reader's ire for repeating it. But it contains a damning truth. Most academic statistical studies are…

(I'm assuming you have been reading previous posts. If not, do so.) We still want this:      (1) Pr (Distance > 1 meter | normal with m and s specified)…