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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

2000 Scientists Demand Climate Action! Part I

Let's suppose everything you have heard about global warming is true. It really will warm by a half-degree Centigrade by 2050, or even by three-quarters of a degree, or whatever.…
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Posted inStatistics

Democrats’ Appalling Budget Wishcast

Update No extra charge for today's initially misspelled headline. It is a logical fallacy to say that it OK for John to lie, cheat and steal because Mary lied, cheated…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Science News Statistical Article: Odds Are, It’s Wrong

Many (thank you everybody!) people sent me the "Odds Are, It's Wrong" article by Tom Siegfried and have asked me to comment. Below are the key points; I will assume…
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Posted inStatistics

Obamacare Predictions: Part I

Here are some things I think will happen if Obamacare is passed. When I say "you" or "your", I mean "people on average." Obviously, some people will benefit. This is…
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Posted inStatistics

Randomized Trials Are Not Needed

I promised this article a long time ago: I hope these well known calculations are enough to give the gist. Randomized controlled trials are supposed to be the gold standard…
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Posted inStatistics

Final Healthcare Showdown: Government vs. Liberty

There's Nancy Pelosi, Six Gun of State strapped to her side, the sun burning overhead. And there's you, armed only with Freedom, thirty paces off. It's a standoff! If you…
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Posted inStatistics

Climate Model Uncertainty: Part II

Read Part I The Analysis (cont.) Two problems arise when comparing a model's integration (the forecast) with an analysis of new observations, which are not found when comparing the forecast…
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Posted inStatistics

Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent

Today's post is at Pajamas Media: President Obama To Make Poverty Permanent. The Obama administration will create a new definition of poverty, one that changes as a function of how…
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  1. NLR on Against Numerology: Some Basic CalculationsOctober 19, 2026

    The mathematician Richard Guy wrote a paper "The strong law of small numbers", where he said, facetiously, but also serirously:…

  2. aGrimm on Book UpdateOctober 16, 2026

    I'm looking forward to the book; warts and all the first was enlightening and fun to read.

  3. John Pate on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    I'm a big fan of LaTeX. I wrote a class package that made it into one or more of the…

  4. Ursula on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    i have your first edition which I read, pencil in hand foor the typos. Loved it anyway! Will be buying…

  5. Brian (buaoren) on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    Hello again, friend Briggs How colloquial is your French? Please allow me to be te first to wish you; Merde!

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