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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Robert Heinlein And Evolving Probabilities

Writer Stephen Dawson, a long-time participant at this blog, wrote and asked the following: In his The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert Heinlein had his intelligent computer calculate the…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Are Humans As Violent As In The Good Old Days?

If we had records of massacres as we have meteorological records, don't you think we might discover their internal laws, after several centuries of observation? --- Joseph de Maistre. There…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The EPA, Dust, And The Ecological Fallacy

In last night's Republican debate, the candidates were asked if they could eliminate just one federal agency, which one would it be? Herman Cain chose the EPA: The first --…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

It’s No Coincidence: Rarity Is Subjective

I have in my hand---you'll have to trust me---a certain blade of grass. He is my favorite. The titling curvature of his blade can only be described as rakish, although…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Is Science? Part I

Science says this, science says that. There is no more loquacious entity these days than science. What is it? Climatologists talk of the science. Physicists compliment by saying a fellow…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Occam’s Razor And Induction

Occam's razor: The simplest hypothesis is usually the best. Simplest is easy to understand, and non-controversial, or relatively so. Consternation creeps in with usually. Before that, first understand what is…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Logical Probability And The IPCC’s Ambiguous Forecasts

This post is inspired by Roger Pielke, Jr., as well as Bernie, Matt, and other readers who asked me to have a look at some IPCC probability statements. Roger Pielke,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Journal Editor Still Inserting Politics Into Science: Trevors and Saier Strike Back

The story thus far: Jack Trevors, bigwig at the learned journal Water Air Soil Pollution, and occasionally along with his pal Milton Saier, has been in the habit of abusing…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 22, 2026

    Enough time has passed, since this post went up, for me to feel no need to stick to the topic.…

  2. David on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026

    I would also like to point out that slaves often had *better* medical care than their working-class white counterparts, being…

  3. Cary Cotterman on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026

    Perhaps slave traders found low-intelligence blacks easier to capture, resulting in an intellectually challenged population of blacks in the U.S.…

  4. Brian (bulaoren) on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026

    Where do homicide rates fit in?

  5. McChuck on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 20, 2026

    I am morally certain that murdering innocent children for fun and profit is evil. There. That was easy.

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