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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Models, theories, consistency, and truth

Ready? Put on your best straight face, recall that global temperatures have not increased for a decade, and that it's actually been getting cooler, then repeat with Brenda Ekwurzel, of…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The only two reasons for statistics

This short post is for reference. I will point back to it from time to time. Reason 1: to say something about the past Examples: counting seasonal numbers of wins…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

A new cure for insomnia

Just so you don't think it's all work and no play around here, I wanted to show you how we statisticians really unwind and let go. We write papers that…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics

What appeal to authority means and what it doesn’t

This article is meant to be the first is a small series of demonstrations of how not and how to argue for or against climate activism. The level of argumentation…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Theory confirmation and disconfirmation

Time for an incomplete mini-lesson on theory confirmation and disconfirmation. Suppose you have a theory, or model, about how some thing works. That thing might be global warming, stock market…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Michael Crichton and SETI

Michael Crichton, as you will have heard by now, is dead. Unfortunately. The Wall Street Journal today reprinted an excerpt of a speech Crichton gave called "Aliens Cause Global Warming."…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics

Breaking the Law of Averages: Real-Life Probability and Statistics in Plain English

It is finally done! You may order directly from the publisher here1. The book will also be available on Amazon, Barnes and Noble, etc. in about a month. I'll update…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Why probability isn’t relative frequency: redux

(Pretend, if you have, that you haven't read my first weak attempt. I'm still working on this, but this gives you the rough idea, and I didn't want to leave…
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  1. Briggs on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    Darin, There is no interval around a probability (with esoteric exceptions not of interest to us). All your evidence is…

  2. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    I'm struggling to extrapolate this to the case when the thing I'm estimating is a probability. Let's say I observe…

  3. hudbwu on Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970sNovember 7, 2025

    I didn't come here for ~two months. Then I come back and ... *shit's gotten weird, son.* o.O At least…

  4. Northbrae on Diversity Patrol Scanning Citations For VictimsNovember 7, 2025

    Cheers from Florida, land of the ugly beasts known as womanatees. Meritocracy is now Ancient Herstory. Sheesh.

  5. RANDOM TIDS & BITS- Thu 3/20/24- – WAXX on The Sports Illustrated curse and regression to the meanNovember 6, 2025

    […] Illustrated” once determined that their cover is a JINX 37% of the time.  So about two out of every five…

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