Search results for ‘probability’

The Burden Of Proof On Climate Scientists—And Those Wishing For Its “Solutions”

UNCERTAINTY REQUIREMENTS If you say a calamity will befall me, and ask me to pay to protect against it, the burden is on you to (a) prove the calamity is likely in […]

How Predictive Statistics Can Help Alleviate, But Not Eliminate, The Reproducibility Crisis

Predictive statistics can help alleviate the Reproducibility Crisis by, in a word, eliminating p-values. And replacing them with superior measures more useful in quantifing the uncertainty present. Below is some, what I […]

Gambler’s Fallacy Not As Crazy As Mathematician’s Fallacy

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of them a […]

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

My Dearest Supporters, Loyal Readers & Despised Enemies, The past year saw a federal-budget-level of grease thrown onto the Slippery Slope. The coming year promises to be no different. Be ready for […]

A Note On Mathematical Axioms (With Regard To Sizes Of Infinity)

This isn’t easy going, but there’s a story out, with a very good write up in Quanta, on mathematical axioms, as they apply to different sizes of infinity. Key paragraph: Their proof […]

Every Time You See “Random” Swap It With “Unpredictable”

Nothing in random in any mystical causative sense. Many things are unpredictable. And, indeed, unpredictable is what people mean when they say random. That, or unknown cause. I was reminded of this […]

Why Simple Models Are Better Than Complex In Finance, Climate, Coronadoom & More

Right after yesterday’s post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his “simple rules”. It repeats a […]