UNCERTAINTY REQUIREMENTS If you say a calamity will befall me, and ask me to pay to protect against it, the burden is on you to (a) prove the calamity is likely in […]

Predictive statistics can help alleviate the Reproducibility Crisis by, in a word, eliminating p-values. And replacing them with superior measures more useful in quantifing the uncertainty present. Below is some, what I […]

A new walks-into-a-bar joke begins (thanks to reader Kip Hansen for the tip): A mathematician, a philosopher and a gambler walk into a bar. As the barman pulls each of them a […]

My Dearest Supporters, Loyal Readers & Despised Enemies, The past year saw a federal-budget-level of grease thrown onto the Slippery Slope. The coming year promises to be no different. Be ready for […]

Nothing in random in any mystical causative sense. Many things are unpredictable. And, indeed, unpredictable is what people mean when they say random. That, or unknown cause. I was reminded of this […]

Right after yesterday’s post on (again) why rationalism and reason fail as philosophies, and on their severe limitations, I read an article profiling Gerd Gigerenzer and his “simple rules”. It repeats a […]

Repeat after me: all models only say what they are told to say. Here it is, right from the hole of Theresa Tam (you recall it was that Canadian official’s bright idea […]