Statistics – Page 51 – William M. Briggs

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Statistics

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

A model---which I do not distinguish between a theory---can be useful to one man and useless to the next. "But Briggs, people don't treat theories the same as models." Right:…

Statistics

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Video Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFDjRS_928 And here is Greg's talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6VMcIp21mA Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don't have a…

Statistics

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article "The Gambler Who Beat Roulette", and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose…

Statistics

Is AI Really Able To Probe Your Brain & See The Image You’re Thinking Of?

There's a rumor going around that computers can now read your thoughts. That "AI" can pick off images you're thinking about. Here's one of many similar breathless headlines: "The AI…

Book review Philosophy Statistics

The Multiverse Hides The Problem It Was Supposed To Solve, And Calls It Solved

Let's end the review of Sabine Hossenfelder's book. We did some already: Emergence, Entropy, and Many Worlds. With this post, we'll have covered the most interesting topics. Old Hoss, and…

Statistics

Broken Science Talks Now Online

Our first ever Broken Science event was in February, and the talks are now online. Watch them all here. These are all up late because the sound was busted, and,…

Statistics

Modulation of Ice Ages – Without CO2 — Guest Post by Ralph Ellis

Ellis sent me his paper "Modulation of Ice-ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks" in Geoscience Frontiers, and I found it rather intriguing. To greatly simplify: CO2 is good for you,…

hudbwu on Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their PillowsNovember 16, 2025
I like how it's implied nuking from orbit is a lesser strike than defunding. :)
Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 16, 2025
John, you say: "Try a different Aunt Sally, Eschenbach: an actual physical dice is an object that can be examined…
John Pate on The Dysgenics Of IVFNovember 15, 2025
The technocrats are unconcerned: they claim they can fix it all via gene editing, or maybe embryo selection, but anyway…
John Pate on Why Study Probability?November 15, 2025
Try a different Aunt Sally, Eschenbach: an actual physical dice is an object that can be examined and measured to…
Uncle Mike on Why Study Probability?November 14, 2025
The answer is a question: what did you expect the counts to be? On what premises did you base your…