Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

The level of debate on global warming is shriekingly poor. Not that I have any hope of convincing the world to reject bad logic, but here are some of the…

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Thanks to reader Roger Cohen for brining this to my attention. Atmospheric scientist Judith Curry recently ran a series of blog posts entitled, "Overconfidence in IPCC’s detection and attribution." In…