Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Science Without God Is Incomplete
Either God exists or He does not. If He does not, then science does not matter. Nothing does. Anything anybody does is mere prejudice, whim. There is no good, there…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Dutch Book: Or, How to Gamble
This post first appeared sometime before 2012, but I lost the original date due to the hacking. If you are a gambler, you'll be delighted to learn that there is…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Probability Of Abiogenesis? There Isn’t One
Remember before when we agreed nothing has a probability? Bully. So if no thing has a probability, neither does abiogenesis, since abiogenesis is a thing. Since abiogenesis is a thing…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Next Time Somebody Asks You “What’s the Probability of X” Say This — Crucial Update!
Next time somebody asks you "What's the Probability of X", where X is any proposition, say this: there is no such probability. It doesn't exist. "Briggs, what's the probability of…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Proof Cause Is In The Mind And Not In The Data
Pick something that happened. Doesn't matter what it is, as long as it happened. Something caused this thing to happen; which is to say, something actual turned the potential (of…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Judea Pearl Is Wrong On AI Identifying Causality, But Right That AI Is Nothing But Curve Fitting
Yep I've disagreed with Judea Pearl before on causality, and I do so again below; but first some areas of agreement. Some deep agreement at that. Pearl has a new…
Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics
Chapter 1 Excerpt from Uncertainty: The Soul of Probability, Modeling & Statistics
Buy the book! Necessary & Conditional Truth Given "x,y,z are natural numbers and x>y and y>z" the proposition "x>z" is true (I am assuming logical knowledge here, which I don't…
Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics
Inference To The Best Explanation: Shapiro’s The Miracle Myth Reviewed — Part II
Read Part I. A researcher puts you into a room. On the table is a blue ball. Somebody put it there. It could have been Alice, Bob, or Charlie. Given…