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William M. Briggs

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How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series
Posted inStatistics

How To Discover Any Trend You Want In Climate Time Series

Day five of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake
Posted inClass Statistics

Signal + Noise vs. Signal: Don’t Make This Classic Mistake

Day three of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I am on vacation…
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The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves
Posted inStatistics

The Ugly Unreality Of The Homogenization Of Time Series: Why Climate Scientists Are Too Sure Of Themselves

Day two of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change". Your author has many bona fides and much experience in this field: see this. Announcement. I…
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Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
Posted inStatistics

Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!

Welcome to the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author has…
Read More
Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…
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National Association of Scholars: Is Science Broken? (Make a guess!)
Posted inPodcast Statistics

National Association of Scholars: Is Science Broken? (Make a guess!)

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Last week…
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Excess Deaths “Attributed To Heat And Cold”
Posted inStatistics

Excess Deaths “Attributed To Heat And Cold”

The National Association of Scholars is hosting a webinar today, 3 PM EST: Is Science Broken? featuring Yours Truly. Free, but you have to register. Recall there is no such…
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  1. JRob on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026

    re: Shawn Marshall Just yesterday my email folder contained a conservative political call to oppose the upcoming abortion amendment to…

  2. C-Marie on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026

    Have they rallied around the mother who killed her three children because she killed her three children, , or have…

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    As we read today's post on..."motherhood", a Massachusetts jury is determining the fate of a mother who killed her 3…

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    IMHO, they ignore the change causes change thing. Nothing ever changes in a vacuum. If we weren't importing millions of…

  5. jgh on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 27, 2026

    That x-axis could just as well be labelled "distance from equator" or "length of winter nights".

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