I am always struggling with (my limited ability of) finding ways to describe the philosophy behind logical probability, especially to people who have a difficult time unlearning classical frequentist theory.…
I was asked to talk about how to handle uncertainty in forecasts. Below is a rough sketch. Many of you run or work with models that produce forecasts, guesses of…
Induction "Because all the many flames observed before have been hot is a good reason to believe this flame will be hot" is an example of an inductive argument, and…
It might have been coming out of the air space between her ear buds and flesh, or it might have been seeping through the holes in the woman's head. Either…
I am traveling today and will be out of contact. And so the briefest introduction to coincidences via the examination of how one classic writer viewed them. We'll explore this…